000
FXUS61 KLWX 031432 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS...
AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE DELMARVA THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE EARL FOR THE MID
ATLC REGION. THE CENTER OF THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM
IS AT ABOUT THE SAME LATITUDE AS THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
IN SERN VA...AND WELL OFF THE COAST ABOUT 150 MI. MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND THE CENTER JUST ABOVE 100 MPH...W/ LESSER SPEEDS
INTERPOLATED BACK TOWARD THE ATLC SHORES/CHSPKE BAY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES OF THE MD BAY/TANGIER SOUND - WHICH REMAIN JUST
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAX GUSTS. THESE WINDS TAPER OFF EVEN
MORE HEADING WESTWARD OVER LOWER SRN MD AND THE MID BAY. THE
OUTERMOST RAIN BAND OF EARL STATIONED OVER THE COUNTIES ADJACENT
TO THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY...WHICH HAS BEEN THERE SINCE
AROUND 9 AM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. THIS RAIN BAND WILL LIKELY PIVOT AND DRIFT EASTWARD
- DISSIPATING OVER THESE AREAS INTO THE EARLY AFTN.

THE CANOPY SHIELD OVER HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARL COVER THE ENTIRE CWA
THOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...THIS PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY REVEAL MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE MID ATLC TOWARD LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE - JUST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VLY. THIS
SOLID SHIELD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST BUT COMFORTABLE W/ TEMPS
ONLY GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. AS
THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MOVES EAST LATER THIS AFTN...THERE
WILL BE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME LEFT TO REACH THE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS IN THE U80S-NEAR 90.

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTER RAIN
BAND OVER ERN MD /E OF I-95/ AND ONLY FOR THE NEXT FEW OF HRS. BY
THE TIME EARL HAS MOVED UP THE ATLC COAST ENOUGH TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL APLCNS AND INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VLY - THE PRECURSOR TO THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
03Z SFC ANLYS SHOWED A CD FNT ACROSS ERN IL. THIS WL MOVE INTO THE
CWA THIS EVE. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE SOME RA IM AFRAID THAT
WONT BE HAPPENING. AS FNT MOVES E OF THE MTNS BLV PCPN WL
WEAKEN/END PRETTY QUICKLY AS ENERGY GETS ABSORBED BY HRCN EARL AS
IT TRACKS E OF LONG ISLAND. ONLY MANIFESTATION OF THE FROPA WL BE
NWRLY BRZS AND SOME WELCOME LOWER DWPTS WHICH WL GIVE THE MID ATLC
RGN A GLIMPSE OF AUTUMN. TEMPS TNGT IN THE 50S W OF I-81...60S
E BUT STILL ONLY A70 ALONG THE CHES BAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
EARL WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH EARL WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS COLDER VALLEYS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. MORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARL WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREADING A THICK 20KFT SHIELD OVER THE
REGION - WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.
CLDS WL OVR THE RGN MUCH OF TDA SKIES WL BE VFR. BWI/MTN COULD
PSBLY SEE A STRAY RW/030 CIG BUT THAT WOULD BE WORSE CASE
SCENARIO. W/ HRCN EARL TRACKING WELL OFF THE DELMARVA FLYING OPS
SHOULD BE MUCH SMOOTHER TDA THAN WHAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE PSBL A FEW
DAYS AGO. NO PROBS W/ FLYING TNGT.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER BAY AND INTO
THE TIDAL POTOMAC REGION. MORE OF THE SAME FORE THE NEXT FEW
HRS...SLOWLY DISSIPATING INTO THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...W/ EARL
EXITING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NE - NEW ENGLAND/CAPE COD COAST.

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530533-537542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...WOODY/BJL